External Assessment of EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score

Purpose The EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score was developed to predict right ventricular failure (RVF) after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. The performance of this model outside the derivation cohort has not been tested. Methods EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Scores were calculated and assessed as predictors of post-operative RVF in a single center continuous flow (CF) LVAD cohort (n=451). Only patients with complete data for risk score calculation and RVF determination were included in the analysis (n = 254). RVF was defined as RVAD within 30 days, continuous inotropic support ≥ 14 days, or inhaled pulmonary vasodilatory use for > 48 hours after LVAD implantation. Results Thirty-nine percent of patients (100/254) had post-operative RVF, however only 9% (23/254) required prolonged inotropic support and 5% (12/254) required RVAD placement. Development of RVF after LVAD was associated with a 45% increase the hazards rate of death on LVAD support (HR 1.45, 95 % CI 0.98-2.2, p =0.066), however this was not statistically significant. The increase in mortality associated with RVF was largely driven by patients who required RVAD support (HR 4.6, 95 % CI 2.3- 9.1, p <0.001). Two of the predictors included in the EUROMACS Right Sided Heart Failure Risk Score were not predictive of RVF in this dataset (hemoglobin, p=0.3, right atrial pressure to pulmonary capillary wedge pressure ratio, p=0.4). The area under the curve for EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score to predict RVF was 58% (95 % CI 52-66%). Conclusion The EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score had poor discrimination in this LVAD dataset. These findings further emphasize the difficulty of predicting RVF after LVAD placement. Further work is required to enhance our understanding pre- LVAD right ventricular physiology and to accurately risk stratify patients. The EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score was developed to predict right ventricular failure (RVF) after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. The performance of this model outside the derivation cohort has not been tested. EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Scores were calculated and assessed as predictors of post-operative RVF in a single center continuous flow (CF) LVAD cohort (n=451). Only patients with complete data for risk score calculation and RVF determination were included in the analysis (n = 254). RVF was defined as RVAD within 30 days, continuous inotropic support ≥ 14 days, or inhaled pulmonary vasodilatory use for > 48 hours after LVAD implantation. Thirty-nine percent of patients (100/254) had post-operative RVF, however only 9% (23/254) required prolonged inotropic support and 5% (12/254) required RVAD placement. Development of RVF after LVAD was associated with a 45% increase the hazards rate of death on LVAD support (HR 1.45, 95 % CI 0.98-2.2, p =0.066), however this was not statistically significant. The increase in mortality associated with RVF was largely driven by patients who required RVAD support (HR 4.6, 95 % CI 2.3- 9.1, p <0.001). Two of the predictors included in the EUROMACS Right Sided Heart Failure Risk Score were not predictive of RVF in this dataset (hemoglobin, p=0.3, right atrial pressure to pulmonary capillary wedge pressure ratio, p=0.4). The area under the curve for EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score to predict RVF was 58% (95 % CI 52-66%). The EUROMACS Right-Sided Heart Failure Risk Score had poor discrimination in this LVAD dataset. These findings further emphasize the difficulty of predicting RVF after LVAD placement. Further work is required to enhance our understanding pre- LVAD right ventricular physiology and to accurately risk stratify patients.