A numerical analysis of the summertime Pearl River plume from 1999 to 2010: Dispersal patterns and intraseasonal variability

A three-dimensional unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was applied to investigate the principal dispersal patterns and intraseasonal variability of the Pearl River plume in summer (June–August) during 1999–2010. The favorable forcing conditions and underlying dynamics for the formation of plume patterns were also explored. The model was validated against a suite of water level, salinity and temperature observations collected during the simulation periods. The simulated results agree well with the observed data, indicating that the model reasonably reproduces the main hydrodynamic processes occurring in the Pearl River estuary. Using Self-Organizing Maps, we extracted eight typical dispersal patterns of the Pearl River plume from the multiyear simulated daily surface salinity fields and estimated the occurrence frequency of each pattern. The eight plume patterns were further categorized into five types based on the morphologies and extension distances of each pattern, namely, west alongshore spreading, fettered spreading, offshore bulge spreading, bidirectional spreading and east offshore spreading; these five types account for 26.3%, 9.8%, 11.5%, 29.1% and 23.3% of the total occurrence frequency, respectively. The pattern that is characterized by bidirectional spreading with a strong eastward extension has the largest occurrence frequency among the eight patterns. Through an analysis of the best matching units derived from Self-Organizing Maps and the corresponding river discharge and wind conditions, we find that both wind and river discharge can significantly affect the Pearl River plume patterns. The plume orientation is mainly modulated by the wind, while the plume area and eastward extension distance are mainly affected by the river discharge. Generally, the favorable forcing conditions and underlying dynamics are different for each plume pattern, and various combinations of river discharge and wind can generate different dynamics to form different plume patterns. The climatological surface salinity field in summer shows a bidirectional structure with the plume extending westward attaching to the coast and eastward detaching from the coast. The areas and eastward extension distances of the Pearl River plume gradually decrease from June to August, affected by the intraseasonal changes in river discharge and wind. The statistical results of the daily plume patterns for June–August show that east offshore spreading, bidirectional spreading and west alongshore spreading are the primary types occurring in June, July and August, respectively. Furthermore, the occurrence frequencies of the west alongshore spreading and offshore bulge spreading increase, while the occurrence frequency of the east offshore spreading decreases from June to August.