Probable Areas Of Degradation-Deforestation Of Vegetation Coverage In Chihuahua, Mexico. An Exploration Through Logistic Regression For The Period 1985-2013

The objective of this work was to identify the areas with risk of degradation-deforestation of forest cover in the west of Chihuahua, in the north of Mexico, using a logistic regression model. It was generated the regression between eleven layers of geographic information (biophysical and socioeconomic) and deforested areas of four municipalities of the state during the period 1985-2013. The results indicate a good predictive power of the generated model (McFadden's Pseudo-R2 of 0.24), and identify land tenure, degree of marginalization and its temporal behavior, soil agrological suitability and terrain slope, as the variables with the biggest weight in the prediction of susceptible areas to forest degradation and loss. These findings facilitate the environmental management of forested areas, and mitigation of causes in zones that are suffering this process.