Long- And Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting On Quarter-Hour Data: A 3-Torus Approach

Long-and short-term forecasting of the Italian electric power load is investigated on a quarter-hour time scale. The detrended and log-transformed data are modelled as the sum of a seasonal term (the potential) and intervention terms accounting for holidays. Yearly, weekly and daily periodicities are effectively captured by modelling the potential as a function defined on a 3-torus. The model yields long-term whole-year predictions, that, with a suitable correction, provide also shortterm whole day predictions. When tested on Italian 2013 load data, the new one-day-ahead forecaster performs definitely better than two state-of-art forecasters currently used by the Italian TSO.