Use of a genetically informed population viability analysis to evaluate management options for Polish populations of endangered beetle Cerambyx cerdo L. (1758) (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae)

A paucity of genetic information and the drastic decline in population size of the beetle Cerambyx cerdo has made this species a high priority for research and conservation management. The state-listed beetle, a saproxylic insect associated with oaks, has a discontinuous range, with larger and more connected populations in southern Europe and small and isolated populations in the continent’s central and northern parts. Here, we used seven microsatellite loci and one DNA fragment of the mitochondrial gene COI to examine the population structure, genetic diversity, and contemporary gene flow between two Polish populations of the beetle. A population viability analysis summarizing collected genetic data as well as field records and species-specific information was performed to investigate the probability of the populations’ persistence over 20 years under different simulation scenarios. Genetic drift due to spatial isolation and bottleneck(s) is probably a major evolutionary force responsible for a low number of haplotypes and lower gene diversity in these populations as compared to the neighboring Czech populations. Despite a large geographic distance between the Polish populations, genetic differentiation between them was low, which could reflect shared ancestral polymorphism and stochasticity of retained alleles rather than the homogenizing effect of gene flow. Differences among probabilities of extinction over 20 years were detected between populations, and, in the worst-case scenarios, one population will disappear within four generations. Conservation efforts must focus on supplementation, habitat restoration, and post-release monitoring. The results of our study provided information that can be incorporated into future management actions to aid in the conservation of the beetle.