Epidermal autophagy and beclin 1 regulator 1 and loricrin: a paradigm shift in the prognostication and stratification of the American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I melanomas

Background The updated American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging criteria for melanoma remain unable to identify high-risk stage I tumour subsets. Objectives To determine the utility of epidermal autophagy and beclin 1 regulator 1 (AMBRA1)/loricrin (AMLo) expression as a prognostic biomarker for AJCC stage I cutaneous melanoma. Methods Peritumoral AMBRA1 expression was evaluated in a retrospective discovery cohort of 76 AJCC stage I melanomas. AMLo expression was correlated with clinical outcomes up to 12 years in two independent powered, retrospective validation and qualification cohorts comprising 379 AJCC stage I melanomas. Results Decreased AMBRA1 expression in the epidermis overlying primary melanomas in a discovery cohort of 76 AJCC stage I tumours was associated with a 7-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate of 81 .5% vs. 100% survival with maintained AMBRA1 (P < 0.081). Following an immunohistochemistry protocol for semi-quantitative analysis of AMLo, analysis was undertaken in validation (n = 218) and qualification cohorts (n = 161) of AJCC stage I melanomas. Combined cohort analysis revealed a DFS rate of 98.3% in the AMLo low-risk group (n = 239) vs. 85.4% in the AMLo high-risk cohort (n = 140; P < 0.001). Subcohort multivariate analysis revealed that an AMLo hazard ratio (HR) of 4.04 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.69-9.66; P = 0.002] is a stronger predictor of DFS than Breslow depth (HR 2.97, 95% CI 0.93-9.56; P = 0.068) in stage IB patients. Conclusions Loss of AMLo expression in the epidermis overlying primary AJCC stage I melanomas identifies high-risk tumour subsets independently of Breslow depth.