Modal shift potential of improvements in cycle access to exurban train stations

•The modal shift potential from car to cycle as access modes to station is addressed.•The potential is estimated under a bicycle-friendly scenario.•The access mode share model is based on cars and bicycle travel times to the station.•Exurban medium-sized towns with good quality train service may have high potential.•The use of pedelec as a feeder mode significantly extends the bicycle catchment area.