Modelling soil sealing density in residential areas for flanders and the brussels capital region

This paper presents a modelling approach for estimating the density of sealed surface cover within residential areas, using a set of explanatory variables describing the spatial context of each area, its morphological properties and its population density. The model is calibrated and applied on Flanders and the Brussels Capital Region using a 30m sealed surface cover fraction map for 2013, obtained through spectral unmixing of four Landsat 8-OLI scenes covering the study area. The work demonstrates that sealed surface cover distribution in residential areas can be explained by the density of different land uses in an area's surroundings, the distance to transport features (roads, road crossings, railway stations) and the positioning with respect to urban clusters of different size, in combination with spatial metrics describing the structure of the built-up area or, alternatively, the area's population density. Models of this kind might be used in combination with land use and population forecasts to obtain more reliable estimates of sealed surface cover density for future time steps.