Development of a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Iran

Iran is located in one of the most seismically active regions of the world. This high seismicity combined with densely populated regions has led to several destructive earthquakes in the past, such as the M7.4 Tabas (1978), M7.4 Manjil–Rudbar (1990), or the M6.6 Bam (2003). Seismic hazard and risk assessment can provide critical information to decision makers for the development of efficient risk reduction measures. In this study, exposure models for the residential, commercial and industrial building stock were developed using recent housing census information, socio-economic data and the judgement of local experts. For each building class in the exposure model, a set of fragility and vulnerability models was derived using nonlinear time history analysis and ground motion records from the region. The exposure and vulnerability models were combined with the recently released Earthquake Model for the Middle East (EMME) to estimate probabilistic earthquake losses using the OpenQuake-engine. These results identify the regions within the country with the highest risk, the most vulnerable building classes, and the expected economic losses for a number of return periods.