Model for Predicting Amputation and Death in Patients With Critical Limb Ischemia Following Endovascular Treatment

Introduction: Patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI) are at high risk for amputation and death. However, there is sparse data on predictors of amputation and death among CLI patients who have undergone endovascular therapy. We developed a multivariable prediction model for amputation and death at 3 years in CLI patients receiving endovascular treatment. Methods: This investigation is a sub-study from a clinical registry of consecutive patients undergoing lower extremity revascularization procedures in 2 integrated health care systems from January 1, 2005 - December 31, 2011. Detailed clinical and procedural data were extracted from chart review by vascular specialists. Inclusion criteria for this analysis were: 1) documented CLI, and 2) receipt of endovascular treatment. A prediction model for amputation and death at 3 years was developed using elastic net regularized regression with a Cox proportional hazards model, and the model’s performance was assessed. Results: Of the 1858 patients in the parent...