Dynamic relationships among tourist arrivals, crime rate, and macroeconomic variables in Taiwan

This article uses Granger causality test and multivariate threshold model's causality to test the existence of dynamic nonlinear relationship among tourist arrival, the crime rate, and macroeconomic variables 2001-2016 in Taiwan. The empirical result shows that tourist arrival has a negative effect on the crime rate and there is two-way causality between the exchange rate and tourist arrival. Where the CPI or the exchange rate as the threshold variables in the multivariate threshold model, the Regime 1 and linear results are same, but the Regime 2 results are different, which shows that not all variables have the same dynamic relation.