Running the gauntlet: Connectivity between natal and nursery areas for Pacific ocean perch ( Sebastes alutus ) in the Gulf of Alaska, as inferred from a biophysical individual-based model

Little is known regarding the importance of early-life transport and dispersion mechanisms in determining recruitment variability for Pacific ocean perch (POP) in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). These mechanisms influence the degree of, and variability in, connectivity between offshore natal areas (parturition sites) and inshore demersal nursery habitats for young-of-the year juveniles, and may thus play an important role in the “gauntlet” that individuals must survive from parturition to recruitment. As a first attempt to assess interannual variability in connectivity between natal and nursery areas for POP in the GOA in a synthetic manner, we developed a coupled biophysical individual-based model (IBM) for POP early life history and dispersal with simple representations of active vertical movement, passive horizontal movement, growth, and settlement in appropriate nursery habitat to integrate known early-life traits with variability in environmental forcing. We used an oceanographic model for the GOA based on the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) to provide the underlying daily physical environment to force the IBM for 1996–2011 and simulated hundreds of thousands of individual POP from parturition along the shelf break to settlement in inshore demersal nursery habitats as young-of-the-year. We used the IBM results to assess spatial patterns of annual “maximum potential” connectivity between presumed natal and nursery areas at alongshore scales of ~ 150 km, as well as the interannual variability in these patterns.