Temporal variations in volumetric magma eruption rates of Quaternary volcanoes in Japan

Long-term evaluations of hazard and risk related to volcanoes rely on extrapolations from volcano histories, including the uniformity of their eruption rates. We calculated volumetric magma eruption rates, compiled from quantitative eruption histories of 29 Japanese Quaternary volcanoes, and analyzed them with respect to durations spanning 10 1 –10 5 years. Calculated eruption rates vary greatly (10 1 –10 −4 km 3 dense-rock equivalent/1000 years) between individual volcanoes. Although large basaltic stratovolcanoes tend to have high eruption rates and relatively constant repose intervals, these cases are not representative of the various types of volcanoes in Japan. At many Japanese volcanoes, eruption rates are not constant through time, but increase, decrease, or fluctuate. Therefore, it is important to predict whether eruption rates will increase or decrease for long-term risk assessment. Several temporal co-variations of eruption rate and magmatic evolution suggest that there are connections between them. In some cases, magma supply rates increased in response to changing magma-generation processes. On the other hand, stable plumbing systems without marked changes in magma composition show decreasing eruption rates through time.