Shifts in plant distributions in response to climate warming in a biodiversity hotspot, the Hengduan Mountains

Aims: It has been assumed that montane species will undergo upslope shifts in response to climate warming and their range sizes are therefore predicted to decrease. However, this view has been challenged because a recent study (Elsen & Tingley, ) indicated that land surface area increases with increasing altitude in some mountains. To test this prediction, we used one of the world's biodiversity hotspots as a study system to examine overall patterns of plant distribution shift in response to climate warming. Location: The Hengduan Mountains and adjacent regions. Methods: Based on distribution data for 151 species at a resolution of 2.5 arc minutes, we employed ecological niche modelling to model their distributions under the climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum, Current (2017), and 2050 separately. We examined the distributional shifts of these species, especially with respect to altitude and range size, in response to two periods of stepwise climate warming. Results: All the montane plants sampled shifted upward during the two warming stages, but not only northward, some shifted westward or in other directions. In contrast with the expected consistent loss of range when shifting upward, 63.6% of the plants expanded their range size continuously since the LGM. Only 11.9% of the plants contracted their range size continuously from the LGM to 2050. Estimates of species richness in the regions studied changed greatly, but in an unbalanced manner, from the LGM to the Current and from the Current to 2050. Main conclusions: Numerous montane plants in the Hengduan Mountains are predicted to expand their range sizes as they shift upslope in response to climate warming. Our results highlight the possibility that more available land surface area due to the heterogeneous topography along altitudinal gradients and the adjacent large Qinghai-Tibet Plateau sensu stricto can mediate the range loss of the montane plants under climate warming. These findings are crucial for estimating the future range sizes of plants and planning biodiversity protection for mountain ecosystems under the anticipated warming of the world's climate.