Noncancer risk assessment of arsenic safe and unsafe water uses: Bayesian estimation on cohort study

Cancer and noncancer risk of arsenic exposure depends on arsenic intake through drinking water and diets. The present study evaluated the probability of noncancer effects of arsenic exposure from drinking water and diets in a cohort of 82 participants in arsenic-endemic rural areas, considering arsenic-safe and arsenic-unsafe water uses for three consecutive years. The risk assessment included the collection of last 24 hours' diet replica and urine of the participants followed by total arsenic analysis of the same. Toxic dose emerging from exposure duration is a nonlinear variable. So, Bayesian estimation of the data for noncancer risk assessment of the variable arsenic consumption was performed. In spite of using arsenic-safe water, we observed arsenic consumption and release. Participants with skin lesions had more arsenic in urine than participants without skin lesions. Future risk for participants without skin lesions was twice due to less arsenic release in urine. For the first time, Bayesian simulation was used to assess noncancer risk on a cohort for a consecutive three-year study. A significant finding was the higher assessed noncancer risk of the participants without skin lesions than the participants with skin lesions.