Did the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake Trigger the Occurrence of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake in Sichuan, China?

The 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquake occurred at the southeastern boundary of the Bayankala block in Tibetan Plateau. Here we investigate the spatial and temporal seismicity rate changes in the Jiuzhaigou region using the finite-source epidemic-type aftershock sequence model and stochastic declustering method. The background probabilities of all events are obtained, and the cumulative background seismicity is extracted and fitted by a linear function. Following from this, we argue that there was a decrease of background seismicity in Jiuzhaigou region immediately after the occurrence of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. On the other hand, we also calculate the static and viscoelastic stress changes in the area around the hypocenter of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake induced by the Wenchuan earthquake. Although opposite results are resolved by previous studies, we infer a negative Coulomb failure stress change under reasonable assumptions of parameters for this case. Combining these two observed empirical relationships, we conclude that the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake is delayed by the Wenchuan earthquake and the former event possibly results from the southeastward movement of the Bayankala block, which in turn arises from the collision of Indian-Australian Plate and the Eurasian Plate. These findings indicate that Bayankala block and its adjacent tectonic faults are still in the highly active seismic period that started in the 1990s.