The outage rate model based on the improved evidence theory considering various outage factors

This paper proposes an improved evidence theory and presents a method to get the outage rate of electrical equipment considering various outage factors. The improved evidence theory is proposed to obtain the real-time outage rate integrating various outage factors. Combined with the real-time power system operating information, the weather forecast information, the on-line monitoring information and the geographical information, this paper presents several outage rate models considering the occasional outages and protection devices' operation when the component is working abnormally. Then the correlations between the various outage factors and critical outage factor is analyzed, an integrated outage rate model is given considering the subjective judgement and objective data based on the improved evidence theory. This outage rate model could be used to discover the possible outage components in the current operating condition.