Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data

•We project 85–143% growth in Chinese residential electricity demand over 2009–2025.•Alternative time trend assumptions are responsible for the wide range.•Income growth drives a 43% increase, with the remainder due to time trends.•One-third of income-driven growth comes from major appliances, particularly AC.•Two-thirds is a direct effect based on an income elasticity of 0.28–0.11.