Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

•Evaluating the impact of zero-deforestation pledges requires up-to-date information.•We estimate oil palm driven deforestation across Indonesia up to 2015.•The share of oil palm plantations displacing forests has steadily declined.•Zero-deforestation commitments may therefore accelerate an ongoing transition.•These commitments are likely to be most impactful in new frontiers of expansion.