Estimation of municipal solid waste generation based on income rates and population size in Brazilian municipalities

The objective of this study was to develop mathematical models that can predict the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated based on socioeconomic variables in Brazilian municipalities. Due to the high level of heterogeneity with regard to Brazilian municipalities, the sample was grouped into certain classes based on population size and income level. MSW generation information was collected from the Sistema Nacional de Informacao sobre Saneamento (SNIS) database, from which, approximately 25% of the data was saved for model validation. Models were formulated for each of the following dependent variables: MSW mass and per capita MSW generation rate. Results showed that the generation of MSW is associated with income level and the size of the municipal population. The models which could be validated can be applied for municipalities that correspond to 60.1% of the Brazilian population (relative to the year 2015) and presented mean relative error of 23%.