[Spatiotemporal characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Shandong province, 2009-2015].

Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Shandong province, 2009-2015. Methods: Data on HIV/AIDS between 2009 and 2015 were derived from the Shandong provincial HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System at the end of 2015. All the data were geographically referenced based on 139 spatial units in the related counties of Shandong province. Electronic maps were obtained from China CDC. Global Moran' s I statistics and LISA statistics were used to detect the global and local spatial distribution patterns of HIV/AIDS in Shandong. Space-time scan statistics method, based on the Poisson Model, was used to detect the space-time clusters of HIV/AIDS. Results: A total of 9 144 HIV/AIDS cases were reported during 2009-2015 in Shandong province. The scope of spatial distribution on HIV/AIDS expanded annually and concentrated in certain areas. Spatial distribution of HIV/AIDS in 2009 was randomized, and results showed spatial autocorrelation at the county level, during 2010-2015. Spatial hotspot-clusters mainly appeared in Tianqiao, Shizhong and Licheng districts of Jinan city, and Shinan, Laoshan districts of Qingdao city. Results from the Space-time scan analysis identified 5 spatiotemporal clusters in 2013-2015, including 1 most likely cluster and 4 secondary clusters which involving Lixia, Shizhong, Huaiyin and Tianqiao districts of Jinan city (RR=11.29, LLR=1 592.84, P<0.001). The covered counties in secondary clusters appeared in Shinan, Shibei and Licang districts of Qingdao city (RR=7.35, LLR=682.40, P<0.001), Weicheng and Kuiwen districts of Weifang city (RR=7.33, LLR=363.49, P<0.001), Zhifu and Laishan districts of Yantai city (RR=7.66, LLR=117.63, P< 0.001), Zhoucun and Zhangdian districts of Zibo city (RR=6.09, LLR=268.68, P<0.001) respectively. Conclusion: HIV/AIDS cases in Shandong province appeared clustering features in both dimensions of time and space. Prevention efforts were needed to focus on HIV/AIDS highly clustered areas, such as Jinan city, Qingdao city, Zibo city, Weifang city and Yantai city.