From Source to Building Fragility: Post-Event Assessment of the 2013 M7.1 Bohol, Philippines, Earthquake

We use ground-motion simulations of the 2013 Bohol, Philippines, earthquake along with a new post-disaster exposure/damage database to constrain building fragility and vulnerability. The large number of damaged buildings (> 70,000) and the wide spread of seismic intensities caused by this earthquake make it an ideal candidate for such a study. An extensive survey was conducted leading to a robust description of over 25,000 damaged and undamaged structures. Ground-motion fields were simulated using ground-motion prediction equations and stochastic modeling, and the estimated and observed values were compared. The finite source model used in the simulation was based on the analysis of aftershocks and SAR data. The ground motions were associated with the empirical database to derive fragility and vulnerability models. Results indicate that the pattern of damage is best captured in the stochastic simulation. Constraints were placed on seismic building fragility and vulnerability models, which can promote more effective implementation of construction regulations and practices.