Post-experimental modelling of grazing systems to improve profit and environmental outcomes using AusFarm

Assessments of grazing systems are often constrained by the decisions regarding the management of the grazing systems, including stocking rate, and also the seasonal conditions that occur during the assessment period. These constraints have led to sometimes conflicting results about comparisons of grazing management systems. This paper examines 1-, 4- and 20-paddock (1P, 4P and 20P) grazing management systems to determine how the intensity of grazing management on native pastures influences the financial performance of sheep production systems. The performance of the grazing systems, as part of the Orange EverGraze research experiment, was initially examined using the biophysical data over the 4 years of the experiment and then a more detailed analysis over a longer timeframe was undertaken using the AusFarm simulation modelling software. Flexible management strategies to optimise ewe numbers, sale time of lambs, and adjust ewe numbers based on season, were also assessed to determine which management systems are the most profitable and sustainable. There was higher profit for the 20P grazing system than the 1P system during the experiment. However, when stocking rates were held constant at optimum levels and systems were simulated over 40 years, there was no difference between grazing systems. Modelling strategies used to vary stocking rates showed that flexible management options are better based on optimising ewe numbers and the sale time of lambs rather than changing ewe numbers between years. The sustainability of modelled systems was also assessed using frequency of events where the average herbage mass (0.8 t DM/ha) or ground cover (80%) in autumn dropped below levels that are associated with degradation. Degradation events occurred more so with increasing ewe number than lamb sale time. Overall, the most sustainable systems, when considering profitability and environmental issues, had a stocking rate of 4.2 ewes per ha, with lambs sold in February (2 or 18). Higher stocking rates (5.3 ewes/ha) would need to be run for more intensive grazing management to have higher profitability.