UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON: A MODEL DIAGNOSTIC AND INTER-COMPARISON STUDY

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary estimate of global climate change damages to society from an additional unit of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. SCCs are used to estimate the benefits of CO2 reductions from policies. However, little is known about the modeling underlying the values or the implied societal risks, making SCC estimates difficult to interpret and assess. This study performs the first in-depth examination of SCC modeling using controlled diagnostic experiments that yield detailed intermediate results, allow for direct comparison of individual components of the models, and facilitate evaluation of the individual model SCCs. Specifically, we analyze DICE, FUND, and PAGE and the multimodel approach used by the US Government. Through our component assessments, we trace SCC differences back to intermediate variables and specific features. We find significant variation in component-level behavior between models driven by model-specific structural and implementation elements, some resulting in artificial differences in results. These elements combine to produce model-specific tendencies in climate and damage responses that contribute to differences observed in SCC outcomes - producing PAGE SCC distributions with longer and fatter right tails and higher averages, followed by DICE with more compact distributions and lower averages, and FUND with distributions that include net benefits and the lowest averages. Overall, our analyses reveal fundamental model behavior relevant to many disciplines of climate research, and identify issues with the models, as well as the overall multimodel approach, that need further consideration. With the growing prominence of SCCs in decision-making, ranging from the local-level to international, improved transparency and technical understanding is essential for informed decisions.