Solar Energy Forecast Validation For Extended Areas & Economic Impact Of Forecast Accuracy

This article evaluates the accuracy of solar energy forecasts as a function of geographic footprint ranging from a single point to regions spanning several hundred km. The forecast models that are evaluated include SolarAnywhere (R), ECMWF, GFS, HRRR, NDFD and satellite-based cloud motion. The forecast time horizons range from one hour ahead to 2 days ahead. In addition, a new accuracy metric is introduced: this metric quantifies the cost of remedying forecast errors with backup generation if the forecasts overpredict, or with curtailment in case of underprediction.