An Updated Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks

The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. Leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. Disruptions are defined as being net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. At least once during the 10-year time frame (2016–2025), there exists approximately an 80% probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month.