Money, Time And Electoral Memory: The Mechanisms That Define The Vote In Mayoral Elections In 2012

This article analyzes the influence of ads and electoral financing in majoritarian local disputes in Brazil. We dialogue with the literature on the role of financial resources and the time of unpaid advertisements in Brazilian election, as well as with the studies on the dynamics of electoral disputes at the municipal level. In methodological terms, we employed multiple linear regression and path analysis. The first shows that the 2012 vote was an effect of the electoral memory based on the performance of the party in 2008, de volume of financial resources and the time of electoral ad slots in the 2012 campaign. The influence of these factors varies according to the size of each municipality. Path analysis makes it possible to identify more clearly the causal determinants among the variables.