Risk assessment on agricultural drought in Zhoukou City based on fuzzy theory

The information diffusion model based on the fuzzy mathematics theory was applied to evaluate the agricultural drought risk of Zhoukou city in order to avoid the characteristics of small regional disaster data lack.The research was carried out separately from two aspects of disaster- occurrence and disaster- consequence.The results were as follows: from the disaster- occurrence aspect,the precipitation anomaly percentage was less than- 36% of the cases,the drought occurrence probability was 85%; when the precipitation anomaly percentage was between- 18% ~- 28%,drought risk probability was 30% ~ 60%; and when the precipitation anomaly percentage was over- 10%,the drought risk probability was less than 10% also; from the disaster- consequence level,when the disaster index was between 5% ~ 30%,drought risk probability was above 40%; when the disaster index was more than 60%,drought risk probability was smaller than 10%; when the disaster index was more than 80%,drought risk probability was less than 5%,about once in 20 years. The evaluation results can provide scientific decision reference for the prevention and control of agricultural drought in Zhoukou city of Henan province.