Study on prediction of HFRS incidence based on mice virus index

Objective To study on prediction of HFRS incidence based mice virus index so as to provide scientific basis for prevention and control measures. Methods According to the national kidney syndrome hemorrhagic fever monitoring program,correlation analysis between human incidence of HFRS and mice virus index from 2005 to 2012 in Anhui province was done using the Spearman correlation analysis and chi-square test method. Results The average incidence of hemorrhagic fever of renal syndrome in surveillance sites of Anhui province was 0. 523 /100000. The incidence in other parts of Anhui province was 0. 215 /100000. Differences were statistically significant( P 0. 05); Linear regression equation model: mice virus index index = 0. 010 + 0. 087 × incidence was set up based on mice virus index and human kidney syndrome hemorrhagic fever incidence. According to the model,incidence of HFRS in surveillance sites in 2013 was predicted as 0. 676 /100000,the 95% CI( 0. 642 /100000,0. 709 /100000). The actual incidence was 0. 689 /100000. Conclusion It is reliable to predict incidence of HFRS based on mice virus index.