Tuberculosis Cases in Sudan; Forecasting Incidents 2014-2023 using Box & Jenkins ARIMA Model

Incidents of Tuberculosis TB in Sudan have been growing in numbers over the last five decades (1967-2014). The study was done using data compiled regularly by National Tuberculosis Programme (NTP) - which continued to be the only TB treatment center in Sudan for over the last half century- TB trend was studied using Box-Jenkins methodology in time series analysis which is the optimal method applied to the pattern. This method consists of four steps namely identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting by ARIMA models. Future forecasts that the number of incidents is likely to continue decreasing; due to significant NTB authorities’ interventions.