Grey model GM (1,1) analysis of economic benefit of comprehensive measures of dust prevention in Dongfeng Fluorite Corporation

Objectives To provide the rational method in estimating economic benefit of measures of dust prevention,to make the results of analysis approach the reality. Methods (1)To forecast pneumoconiosis patient number and pneumoconiosis patient death number reduced owing to dust prevention with grey dynamics model,GM(1,1).Forecast of GM (1,1) apply the EXCEL program written by myself. Results During a period of 18 years(1965～1982),owing to the installment of dust preventing device in Zhejiang Dongfeng Fluorite Corp,satisfactory results were achieved as follows:948 workers luckly escaped pneumoconiosis and 436 cases survived the disease.And 0.383 9 million yuan for pneumoconiosis patient recuperate wages,0.254 1 million yuan for medical expenses,0.230 6 million yuan for compensatingbereaved families expenses were saved and in turn,an output value of 0.663 6 million yuan was created.The ratio between capital investment and production output was 1∶3.04. Conclusions The reliability and the validity is quite good that number of pneumoconiosis patient and the dead of pneumoconiosis escaped by sheer luck owing to dust prevention are calculated roughly by GM (1,1). C =0.44 and 0.18 respectively.