Salinity intrusion and rice production in Red River Delta under changing climate conditions

This study was carried out to identify the vulnerability of rice production to salinity intrusion arising from climate change in Giao Thuy, a coastal district of Nam Dinh Province, located in Red River Delta in Vietnam. From the analysis of historical climate data at Nam Dinh city, both mean maximum and minimum temperatures increased by about 0.3 and 0.1 °C per decade, respectively, during the period of 1961–2010. Salt concentration of the river water was higher at the irrigation gate closer to river mouth (Con Nhat) than at the upstream gate (Ha Mieu), which generally increased from 2003 to 2012, with the average maximum concentration up to 2.13 % at Con Nhat gate in 2010. The salt water concentration in the riverside field outside the dyke reached 3.6 %, while among the fields within dyke the salinity was only 0.7 % at maximum in January 2013, and the values were higher in paddy fields close to the dyke than far from the dyke. Average yield among the selected 27 fields from 2011 summer to 2013 spring rice was higher in spring rice (748 g m −2 ) but lower in summer rice (417 g m −2 ) mainly due to unfavorable weather such as cold spell at flowering and flood at harvesting time. Rice yield was lowest in general in the most downstream commune Giao Thien, and was significantly lower in field located close to the dyke than those far from the dyke. This spatial variability of rice yield may not be directly attributable to salinity, but to the other factors such as shift of irrigation intake gate to further upstream and/or different management such as less input of N fertilizer and use of traditional local variety.