Estimating the incidence of tuberculosis cases reported at a tertiary hospital in Ghana: a time series model approach.
BMC public health(2018)
摘要
Irregular fluctuations were observed in the 10 -year data studied. The model equation to estimate the expected monthly TB cases at KBTH produced an AR coefficient of 0.971 plus an MA coefficient of - 0.826 with a constant value of 4.127. The result is important for developing a hypothesis to explain the dynamics of TB occurrence so as to outline prevention programmes, optimal use of resources and effective service delivery.
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关键词
Tuberculosis,Time series,Incidence,Estimate,Forecast
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