Estimating the incidence of tuberculosis cases reported at a tertiary hospital in Ghana: a time series model approach.

Irregular fluctuations were observed in the 10 -year data studied. The model equation to estimate the expected monthly TB cases at KBTH produced an AR coefficient of 0.971 plus an MA coefficient of - 0.826 with a constant value of 4.127. The result is important for developing a hypothesis to explain the dynamics of TB occurrence so as to outline prevention programmes, optimal use of resources and effective service delivery.