Vehicle-based methane surveys for finding natural gas leaks and estimating their size: validation and uncertainty.

Managing leaks in urban natural gas (NG) distribution systems is important for reducing methane emissions and costly waste. Mobile surveying technologies have emerged as a new tool for monitoring system integrity, but this new technology has not yet been widely adopted. Here, we establish the efficacy of mobile methane surveys for managing local NG distribution systems by evaluating their ability to detect and locate NG leaks and quantify their emissions. In two cities, three-quarters of leak indications from mobile surveys corresponded to NG leaks, but local distribution companies' field crews did not find most of these leaks, indicating that the national CH4 activity factor for leaks in local NG distribution pipelines is underestimated by a factor of 2.4. We found the median distance between mobile-estimated leak locations and actual leak locations was 19 m. A comparison of emission quantification methods (mobile-based, surface enclosure, and tracer ratio) found that the mobile method overestimated leak magnitude for the smallest leaks but accurately estimated size for the largest leaks that are responsible for the majority of total emissions. Across leak sizes, mobile methods adequately rank relative emission rates for repair prioritization, and they are easily deployed and offer efficient spatial coverage.