Habitat assessment of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in Eastern Tajikistan: Modeling the effects of climate change.
Ecology and evolution(2018)
摘要
Identifying the factors predicting the high-elevation suitable habitats of Central Asian argali wild sheep and how these suitable habitats are affected by the changing climate regimes could help address conservation and management efforts and identify future critical habitat for the species in eastern Tajikistan. This study used environmental niche models (ENMs) to map and compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for Marco Polo argali. Argali occurrence points were collected during field surveys conducted from 2009 to 2016. Our models showed that terrain ruggedness and annual mean temperature had strong correlations on argali distribution. We then used two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time periods (2050 and 2070) to model the impacts of climate change on Marco Polo argali habitat. Results indicated a decline of suitable habitat with majority of losses observed at lower elevations (3,300-4,300 m). Models that considered all variables (climatic and nonclimatic) predicted losses of present suitable areas of 60.6% (6,928 km2) and 63.2% (7,219 km2) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Results also showed averaged habitat gains of 46.2% (6,106 km2) at much higher elevations (4,500-6,900 m) and that elevational shifts of habitat use could occur in the future. Our results could provide information for conservation planning for this near threatened species in the region.
更多查看译文
AI 理解论文
溯源树
样例
![](https://originalfileserver.aminer.cn/sys/aminer/pubs/mrt_preview.jpeg)
生成溯源树,研究论文发展脉络
Chat Paper
正在生成论文摘要