Ensembles of radar nowcasts and COSMO-DE-EPS for urban flood management.
WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY(2018)
摘要
Sophisticated strategies are required for flood warning in urban areas regarding convective heavy rainfall events. An approach is presented to improve short-term precipitation forecasts by combining ensembles of radar nowcasts with the high-resolution numerical weather predictions COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service. The combined ensemble forecasts are evaluated and compared to deterministic precipitation forecasts of COSMO-DE. The results show a significantly improved quality of the short-term precipitation forecasts and great potential to improve flood warnings for urban catchments. The combined ensemble forecasts are produced operationally every 5 min. Applications involve the Flood Warning Service Hamburg (WaBiHa) and real-time hydrological simulations with the model KalypsoHydrology.
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关键词
COSMO-DE-EPS,ensemble runoff forecast,operational flood warning,radar nowcast ensembles,real-time runoff simulations,urban flood management
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