Prediction of fractures in men using bone microarchitectural parameters assessed by high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography - the prospective STRAMBO study.

Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) poorly identifies men at high fracture risk. Our aim was to assess prediction of fractures in men by bone microarchitectural measures. At baseline, 825 men aged 60 to 87 years had the assessment of bone microarchitecture at distal radius and distal tibia by high-resolution peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT; XtremeCT-I, Scanco Medical, Bruttisellen, Switzerland). Bone strength was estimated by micro-finite element analysis. During the prospective 8-year follow-up, 105 men sustained fractures (59 vertebral fractures in 49 men and 70 nonvertebral fractures in 68 men). After adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), prior falls, and fractures, most HR-pQCT measures at both skeletal sites predicted fractures. After further adjustment for aBMD, low distal radius trabecular number (Tb.N) was most strongly associated with higher fracture risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-2.03, p<0.001). In similar models, low Tb.N was associated with higher risk of major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.80 per SD, p<0.001), vertebral fracture (HR = 1.78 per SD, p<0.01) and nonvertebral fracture (HR = 1.46 per SD, p<0.01). In comparison with the reference model (age, BMI, falls, fractures, aBMD), the adjustment for distal radius Tb.N increased the estimated fracture probability in men who sustained fractures versus those who did not have ones (difference = 4.1%, 95% CI 1.9-6.3%, p<0.001). However, the adjustment for distal radius Tb.N did not increase the area under the curve (AUC, p = 0.37). Similar results were found for distal radius trabecular separation (Tb.Sp) and connectivity density (Conn. D). They were predictive of all fracture types and increased the estimated fracture risk, but not AUC, in men who had incident fractures. Thus, poor distal radius trabecular microarchitecture is predictive of fracture after adjustment for age, BMI, falls, fractures, and aBMD. Although distal radius Tb.N, Conn. D, and Tb.Sp improve the discrimination between men who will or who will not have fracture, they do not provide clinically relevant improvement of fracture prediction in older men. (c) 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.