Development of a Prognostic Prediction Model to Determine Severe Dengue in Children

Objective To develop a prognostic prediction model using the seven warning signs highlighted by WHO revised Dengue fever classification 2009 to determine severe dengue in children. Methods In this prospective analytical study conducted in a tertiary care centre, consecutive sampling of all children aged 1mo to 12y admitted with serologically confirmed Dengue was done from May 2015 through August 2016. After excluding 27 patients with co-infections and co-morbidities, 359 patients were followed up daily to assess clinical and laboratory progression till discharge/ death. Independent predictors were abdominal pain or tenderness, persistent vomiting, lethargy, mucosal bleed, clinical fluid accumulation, hepatomegaly >2 cm and rising hematocrit concurrent with platelet count <100 × 10 9 /L. Outcome measure was severe dengue defined as per WHO guidelines 2009. Results Among 359 children, 93 progressed to severe dengue. In univariate analysis, significant predictors were clinical fluid accumulation (OR 4.773, p = 0.000, 95%CI 2.511–9.075), persistent vomiting (OR 1.944, p = 0.010, 95%CI 1.170–3.225), mucosal bleed (OR 2.045, p = 0.019, 95%CI 1.127–3.711) and hematocrit ≥0.40 concurrent with platelet count <100 × 10 9 /L (OR 2.985, p = 0.000, 95%CI 1.783–4.997). The final multivariable model included clinical fluid accumulation (aOR 3.717, p = 0.000, 95%CI 1.901–7.269), hematocrit ≥0.40 concurrent with platelet count <100 × 10 9 /L (aOR 2.252, p = 0.004, 95%CI 1.302–3.894) and persistent vomiting ( p = 0.056) as predictors of severe dengue. Conclusions Among seven WHO warning signs, predictors of severe dengue as suggested by the present multivariable prediction model include clinical fluid accumulation, persistent vomiting and hematocrit ≥0.40 concurrent with platelet count <100 × 10 9 /L.