Probabilistic assessment of structural operational efficiency in emergency limit conditions: the I.OPà.CLE method

One major issue in the aftermath of a strong earthquake is the emergency management, which cannot be guaranteed if the physical components necessary for the operability of the contingency plan are either damaged, unusable or inaccessible. In order to assess the physical efficiency of the emergency system on which a contingency plan is based, the I.OPà.CLE method ( Indices for evaluation of the Operational efficiency of Limit Condition Emergency ) has been set up by the Italian Civil Protection Department. It is basically aimed at supporting civil protection decision makers in evaluating emergency systems and establishing strategies and priorities concerning strengthening interventions at national, regional or municipality level. The method must be potentially applied to any of the around 8000 municipalities all over Italy, and then it must refer to a minimum information dataset readily available for any municipality. Therefore, I.OPà.CLE has been specifically tailored for the minimum standard information that is provided by the analysis of Limit Condition for Emergency, as formulated in 2012 by the Italian Civil Protection Department. This analysis defines the standard framework of the physical layout of a municipal seismic emergency plan, relying on a limited number of information. Notwithstanding the numerically extensive target and limited amount of information available, the ambition of I.OPà.CLE is to perform simplified analyses without renouncing to rigor in the methodology. The present paper illustrates the analytic formulation of I.OPà.CLE and its capabilities, as well as two real examples. In the conclusion, future upgrading of the model are discussed, even in relation to the availability of further pieces of information.