Utility of Serial Protocol Biopsies Performed After 1 Year in Predicting Long-Term Kidney Allograft Function According to Histologic Phenotype.

Objectives: Prognostic implications of early protocol biopsies have been studied; however, the value of late protocol biopsy in predicting graft outcome has not been well defined. Here, we compared the effects of early and late protocol biopsy histologic findings in stable kidney allografts and aimed to understand the significance of "borderline" rejection on allograft function. Materials and Methods: We studied 261 biopsies from 159 renal transplant recipients who were on a steroid-free, calcineurin inhibitor and mycophenolate mofetil regimen and who received transplants between 2004 and 2012 with mean follow-up of 5 years. Early (between 3 and 9 mo) and subsequent late (between 12 and 24 mo) protocol biopsies were performed. Biopsies were classified as normal, interstitial fibrosis and/or tubular atrophy, subclinical acute rejection with interstitial fibrosis and/or tubular atrophy, and borderline rejection with interstitial fibrosis and/or tubular atrophy. A linear mixed-effects model was used to determine the effects of early and late protocol biopsies on estimated glomerular filtration rate changes, with baseline time for estimated glomerular filtration rate fixed at 12 months. Results: The adjusted model showed that estimated glomerular filtration rate at 3 months, donor age, delayed graft function, and early protocol biopsies were associated with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate at 12 months. Estimated glomerular filtration rate changes over time were associated with findings of interstitial fibrosis and/or tubular atrophy at early biopsy and subclinical acute rejection and borderline rejection at late biopsy. At last follow-up, final estimated glomerular filtration rate was significantly associated with interstitial fibrosis and/or tubular atrophy at early biopsy and with subclinical acute rejection at late biopsy. Conclusions: Although early protocol biopsy predicted baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, late biopsy was important for predicting changes in function over time. In addition, a diagnosis of "borderline" rejection on protocol biopsies predicted long-term graft function.