Social Events Forecasting in Microblogging.

Along with the popularization and rapid development of Internet, there is a growing interest in the research to identify the trend of social events on social media. Currently news could quickly spread on various social media (e.g. Sina Weibo) with a limited time, which may trigger the severity of the events that requires timely attention and responses from government. This paper proposes to predict the trend of social events on Sina Weibo, which is the most popular social media in China now. In this study, combining social psychology and communication sciences, we extracted comprehensive and effective features which may relate to the trend of social events on social media, and constructed the trend prediction models using three classical regression algorithms. The real social events data was used to verify the performance of our model, and the outstanding performance with precision of 0.56 and an f-measure of 0.71 demonstrate the efficiency of our features and models.