Dynamics Of The Pneumonic Plague Epidemic In Madagascar, August To October 2017

Shinya Tsuzuki,Hyojung Lee,Fuminari Miura,Yat Hin Chan,Sung-Mok Jung,Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,Hiroshi Nishiura

EUROSURVEILLANCE（2017）

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摘要

Transmission potential and severity of pneumonic plague in Madagascar were assessed. Accounting for reporting delay, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.73. The case fatality risk was estimated as 5.5%. Expected numbers of exported cases from Madagascar were estimated across the world and all estimates were below 1 person from August to October, 2017.

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关键词

Basic reproduction number,Case fatality ratio,Outbreak,Yersinia pestis,importation,risk assessment

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