Estimating a Parametric Component Lifetime Distribution from a Collection of Superimposed Renewal Processes.

Maintenance data can be used to make inferences about the lifetime distribution of system components. Typically, a fleet contains multiple systems. Within each system, there is a set of nominally identical replaceable components of particular interest (e.g., 2 automobile headlights, 8 dual in-line memory module (DIMM) modules in a computing server, 16 cylinders in a locomotive engine). For each component replacement event, there is system-level information that a component was replaced, but no information on which particular component was replaced. Thus, the observed data are a collection of superpositions of renewal processes (SRP), one for each system in the fleet. This article proposes a procedure for estimating the component lifetime distribution using the aggregated event data from a fleet of systems. We show how to compute the likelihood function for the collection of SRPs and provide suggestions for efficient computations. We compare performance of this incomplete-data maximum likelihood (ML) estimator with the complete-data ML estimator and study the performance of confidence interval methods for estimating quantiles of the lifetime distribution of the component. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.