Politically Predictive Potential of Social Networks: Twitter and the Indian General Election 2014

The Indian General Election 2014 witnessed the casting of 540 million votes, making it the largest democratic exercise in human history. The center-right Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) single-handedly won a majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament, a feat emulated after 30 years in India's vibrant multiparty democracy where coalition governments have long been the norm. A new prime minister, Narendra Modi, swept into office with 31% of the vote riding on an extensive social media campaign -- a significant first in Indian polity. Some commentators have even gone as far as calling it a Twitter election[2]. We investigate these claims by analyzing the Twitter network in India in the months leading up to and including the election. We study the use of social media by different political actors using an augmented contagion model of information dissemination. We look closely at both the direct role of the actors as well as their catalyzing role and influence in the network. Sentiment analysis based clustering is used to gauge the public opinion. Drawing on these sources, we compare the efficacy of the social media strategies of important political actors. We find that the BJP and its coalition partners pursued a more rigorous and effective social media strategy than those of other political actors. Furthermore, they were able to not only establish but also maintain a robust network of supporters that eventually translated into a significant electoral victory.