A prognostic model for survival after urinary diversion for malignant ureteral obstruction: A prospective study of 208 patients.

102 Background: To determine prognostic factors and create a model for risk stratification in patients with malignant obstructive uropathy.We prospectively collected clinical and laboratory variables of 208 patients who underwent palliative urinary diversion by ureteral stenting or percutaneous nephrostomy between January 2009 and November 2011 in two tertiary care university hospitals, with minimum 6 months follow-up. Inclusion criteria were age>18yr and malignant urinary obstruction confirmed by computed tomography, ultrasound or magnetic resonance imaging.Median survival after urinary diversion was 144 days. At the end of the study 164 patients died, 44 (21.2%) during the urinary diversion hospitalization. There was no difference in overall survival between the 2 types of diversion (p=0.216). The number of events related to malignant dissemination (≥4) and ECOG index≥2 were associated with shorter survival in multivariable analysis. Using these 2 risk factors (RF), patients were divided into 3 groups: favorable(no RF), intermediate(1RF) and unfavorable(2RF). The median survival at 1, 6, and 12 months was 94.4%, 57.3% and 44.9% in the favorable group, 78.0%, 36.3%, and 15.5% in the intermediate, and 46.4%, 14.3%, and 7.1% in the unfavorable. There were differences in survival profiles of the 3 groups (p<0.001).Our stratification model may be useful tool to determine whether urinary diversion procedures are indicated in patients with malignant urinary obstruction.