Event Early Embedding: Predicting Event Volume Dynamics at Early Stage

Social media has become one of the most credible sources for delivering messages, breaking news, as well as events. Predicting the future dynamics of an event at a very early stage is significantly valuable, e.g, helping company anticipate marketing trends before the event becomes mature. However, this prediction is non-trivial because a) social events always stay with \"noise'' under the same topic and b) the information obtained at its early stage is too sparse and limited to support an accurate prediction. In order to overcome these two problems, in this paper, we design an event early embedding model (EEEM) that can 1) extract social events from noise, 2) find the previous similar events, and 3) predict future dynamics of a new event. Extensive experiments conducted on a large-scale dataset of Twitter data demonstrate the capacity of our model on extract events and the promising performance of prediction by considering both volume information as well as content information.