Market fluctuation risk evaluation model for planning in manufacturing

Many manufacturing companies are experiencing more and more wider variation in market growth and customer demand. Studies have been conducted over the years to improve the accuracy of the manufacturing forecast. However, the theoretical forecast models so far haven't achieved much success and the gaps between forecast and actual demand are still wide that a buffer has to be built up especially for semiconductor manufacturing company to cope with the market fluctuation. An effective approach to assess the vulnerability of the demand forecast to market fluctuation for manufacturing is critical. In this work, a cost-based model for forecast vulnerability evaluation through simulation and visualization of the impact of various demand fluctuation is proposed. The model is able to evaluate the robustness of the forecast of semiconductor manufacturers and enable companies to prepare and respond to unexpected market fluctuation risk. It can also assist manufacturing production and resource planning proactively with a robust forecast. The case study shows that the model is able to identify at-risk product groups, facilities and distribution centers. Company can then decide how its forecast shall be adjusted by simulation and visualization of the forecast vulnerability under various market trends.