The prognosis of hepatitis B inactive carriers in Japan: a multicenter prospective study

Background Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative inactive carriers, the majority of hepatitis B virus (HBV) carriers, are considered to have a good prognosis. The definition of the inactive HBV carrier state has been based on HBV DNA and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels. Here we conducted a prospective study involving 18 hospitals to clarify the prognosis of HBeAg-negative inactive carriers. Methods Three hundred eighty-eight HBeAg-negative inactive carriers at the baseline were observed prospectively from January 2011 to November 2015. We evaluated the primary end point, defined as the development of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), or liver-related death. Also, we analyzed the factors associated with inactive carrier dropout and markedly increased levels of ALT or HBV DNA or both during the follow-up period. Results At the baseline, the mean age was 57.5 ± 13.1 years and 42 % of patients were male. No individual developed cirrhosis, HCC, or liver-related death during the follow-up period (1035 ± 252 days). Loss of inactive carrier status was seen in 75 patients (19.3 %). Factors associated with failure to meet the inactive carrier criteria in the multivariate analysis were the levels of ALT (hazard ratio 1.13, 95 % confidence interval 1.07–1.19, p < 0.001), HBV DNA (hazard ratio 2.70, 95 % confidence interval 1.63–4.49, p < 0.001), and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (hazard ratio 1.01, 95 % confidence interval 1.00–1.02, p = 0.003) at the baseline. Conclusions Most inactive carriers in Japan had a good prognosis. However, despite the short observation period, some patients had loss of IC status. The long-term prognosis of inactive carriers remains unclear; therefore, careful follow-up of inactive carriers is needed.