Forecasting potential innovation activities in high-tech industries triggered by merger and acquisition deals: a framework of analysis

Technologies arising out of successful high-tech mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have a significant innovation potential. However, forecasting of the possible output is coupled with uncertainties caused by misleading or insufficient future-oriented analytics. The proposed framework facilitates publicly available information and data to forecast potential innovation activities of the companies involved in high-tech M&As. A five-step scheme of analysis is aimed to assess previous M&A record, intellectual property (IP) portfolios of the focal companies as well as the relevant technological context, and construct pathways of potential innovation activities using elements of a scenario technique and roadmapping. The framework has been tested on the deals including both large concerns and small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). We summarize the paper by reflecting on the merits and limitations of the framework on the way to our objective – to provide grounded forecasting triggered by M&As to support the decision-making.