Where the bears roam in Majella National Park, Italy

The Brown bear (Ursus arctos Linnaeus, 1758) occupies contiguous areas in Eastern and Northern Europe. In Western Europe, the largest remnant populations occur in Cantabria, Spain and the Apennines, Italy. Under Italian law the bear and its occupied range are protected. The occupied range of the Apennine brown bear includes Majella National Park. However, information on the distribution within Majella NP is extrapolated and inconsistent, thus precluding evidence-based protected area and species management. To address this lack of information, bear presence records (1996–2010) were collated and corrected for observational bias. Multiple Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were created at 800m resolution to predict year-round and seasonal bear distribution. A hierarchical, stepwise maxent SDM approach was applied using climatic, terrain, vegetation, and anthropogenic predictors of bear distribution. Occupied ranges were identified by point density analysis of bear presence. Our climate-only SDMs predicted bear presence in areas with relatively low snowfall and temperate temperatures. Year-round bear distribution was also accurately predicted by using temperate-montane elevations and mesic, mesotrophic vegetation substrates, irrespective of vegetation. Ski-resorts were negative predictors of year-round bear occurrence. Bears were predicted in autumn and winter by beech forest, in spring by meadows and in summer by a variety of vegetation categories. The regional and our local models predicted bear throughout the south. However, our predicted and occupied range in the north includes the Orta valley and exclude alpine heights, contrary to the regional models. Only our summer bear range is similar to a regional SDM. We demonstrated that multiple maxent SDMs using a modest number of observations and a comprehensive set of environmental variables may generate essential distributional information for protected area and species management where full wildlife and food source censuses are lacking.